Electrics are rising again, but how the election might play out could affect that surge, Subaru’s local boss believes.

REINSTATING Subaru as a electric vehicle sector competitor should help lift the brand’s lagging market share, but uncertainty about the post-election political climate still raises peril for battery vehicle uptake.

Those are among views held by Paul Mallard (above), the newly-installed general manager of Subaru New Zealand.

However, this brand enthusiast with a rich background in industry - mainly the dairy sector, with Fonterra - and motorsport, with multiple involvements including running Rally New Zealand, relishes a challenge.

He was happy to share thoughts at yesterday’s media event for the new Trailseeker, the first of three platform and technology sharing electric cars co-developed with Toyota available for sale.

MotoringNZ: Logically the price of fossil fuels having escalated quite significantly this year will help introduce Trailseeker (below) to Subaru owners, but might those pump price hikes also dilute interest in the Outback, which has historically been your brand’s biggest selling product here?

Paul Mallard: It's possible. We haven't really gone too far into trying to work it out. We'll see what the customers do. There are customers that are telling us they're still not ready for EV. There's others who are saying they've been waiting.

MN: Subaru Japan is making it pretty abundantly clear now that electric is their future. Inchcape holds distribution rights for New Zealand and Australia and over there they are ahead, with three models: Uncharted, Solterra and Trailseeker. Will you consider them?

PM: I think the reality for us is as a market from a Subaru perspective, we're more than 10 times smaller than them. And there's also an element of, yep, you want to have all the choice, but actually as a business you've got to manage that. If you have too many models, it actually gets really hard to manage that.

But we are looking at it. We've been to Australia, driven the cars. We want to see how Trailseeker goes because the world's moving pretty fast and we know there's a few other brands that have ended up with a lot of cars when they've gone a little bit early.

MN: Is history also on your mind? Subaru NZ has been in that situation with Solterra, which launched in 2022. What should have been the best time turned out to be the worst with incentives being pulled. The car suddenly didn't look comfortable in the market.

PM: Yes, and we've got an election in three weeks. So, yeah, we're absolutely thinking of all of those things.

MN: Assuming Uncharted comes and Solterra returns, would you consider dropping the petrol-equivalent Crosstrek and Forester?

PM: No, I think they have quite different functions, they’re still doing quite different jobs. I think Crosstrek in particular is at a different price point to where we would be with an EV. And I think Foreste, particularly with the Forester hybrid (below), is still relatively new market and is a great platform.

MN: Do you think because those are heritage models and Outback is a heritage model that they deserve to have the best chance they possibly can have for as long as they can?

PM: I think it's a business, right? We don't sell Impreza in New Zealand anymore, which was a heritage model for a long time. Australia still do, but we've stopped that here.

The market will decide, but I think they're still doing different jobs and have different customers. I think particularly Forester Hybrid's got a really bright future.

MN: Your sentiment today seems to be that Trailseeker is a complete restart for your EV programme; you seem to be suggesting ‘we did Solterra, we had a hard time, we’re starting again.’ Is that accurate?

PM: One hundred percent. With the Solterra (below) … the timing just wasn't right. We were probably six months later than we wanted to be, and that just is what it is. But I think too this Trailseeker is an infinitely more capable vehicle, just as the new Solterra also is. When you drive this car, it doesn't feel like a Solterra did.

MN: In respect to Subaru’s internal combustion engine programme, what’s the future - do you get any vibe out of Japan about how much longer it will keep faith in the flat four?

PM: It's game on. I mean, I know there's been some media saying that they've discontinued it in Europe, but their market position there is completely different in New Zealand.

MN: In respect to market performance, at end of September 1573 new Subaru cars had been registered in 2026, which provisions your brand 1.9 percent of the market. That's surely the smallest market share Subaru NZ has had for some quite time.

PM: Yep, but I think we're in a similar boat to many of the other long-term brands. Virtually every one of those brands, including the biggest ones, are in decline or were in decline.

But that's the market that's evolved, right? Chinese manufactured cars are achieving more than 30 percent of the market in some months now. Obviously that includes brands like Tesla.

That's the market and we're evolving to it. I think now we're in EV, that's now 15 to 20 percent share of motive power. That's where we need to be.

MN: Can Subaru exist in New Zealand with less than 2000, 3000 registrations?

PM: Yeah, we can. I think Inchcape's still open to other opportunities and growing brands. Our dealers are still super committed and I don't say that just as a party line. They want to stay with us and I think that's just a matter of when the market evolves, you've got to evolve with it. We're going to see Forester Hybrid grow. We're going to go into EV. We see opportunities for growth next year.

MN: What about the forecast for the remainder of this year?

PM: It's hard to know at the moment. Talking to dealers, everyone's saying ‘election’. I think we all know it doesn't matter which side of the political spectrum you are. If we have a sudden move to one side or the other or we have coalition for a month, no one's going to sell any cars.

MN: What do you need from government to sell EVs in New Zealand? Do you need incentives?

PM: Well, I think there's incentives now. Will there be more if there is change? I don't really know.

Electric is at 15 plus percent across the New Zealand industry, so I think they absolutely do stand on their own two feet. Government policy can swing that both ways. We’ve seen that. I’m no political scientist, but which party wins and which coalition forms? We'll see what it is.

I think ultimately as a business, you got to just make the decisions based on the best information you've got at the time. If we do see a swing from a policy perspective to drive EV, we've now got offering in the market.